Like the last time, AP went to polls at the same time as the Centre. I was quite vocal about my support for the BJP+ at the centre and for the TDP+ at state. Enter Chiranjeevi, I was more drawn towards the contest at the state level. Hence this blog.
The results so far are very interestingly poised.Photo Finish is what the media has been calling it. Of the 294 seats:
Congress leads in 140; TDP leads in 124; PRP leads in 16; TRS leads in 10; Left leads in 4 and others (including the Majlis): 10
So much of numbers don't make the picture any better, they only seem to make it more interesting. The options that exist for Government formation include:
- Either the Cong+ (including the Majlis) or TDP+ (including the Left, TRS) attain a majority.
- Both the fronts fall short of an absolute majority and take support from PRP which is the only single sizeable chunk outside the two major fronts. In which case Chiru can demand more than his pound of flesh. The demands could range anywhere from making him the CM for a portion of the Assembly's tenure to a big portfolios in the cabinet.
Any reasonable analysis of the post-poll scenario will have to focus on case 2, since the occurance of case 1 would dismiss the need for an analysis. Which way Chiru goes is essentially the crucial factor! Reasons that Chiru would factor in before making the choice are:
- The presence of ex-TDP stalwarts in the PRP may tend to repel it from any proximity to the TDP.
- The traditional rivalry between the vote-bank of the PRP (Kapu community) and TDP (Kamma community). The fact that the Kapus and other BCs form a significant chunk of the population in the state might tempt Chiru to retain the vote bank and move away from the TDP+. Hurting this vote bank could mar his future prospects.
- In a way, any vote that has not gone for the Cong+, can be interpreted as a vote against the incumbent Govt. Extrapolating this logic, the PRP cannot support the incumbent Govt. since it would against the people's will.
What remains to be seen is whether Chiru goes on to retain the vote bank or if he goes with the people's will.
A 3D catch 22 situation for Chiru. Based on current trends, even if Chiru supports TDP, it will still fall short of a simple majority. Hence the only viable option left for him is to support the INC.
ReplyDeleteYes, Case 2 seems to be the possible way to form the govt. Most of the candidates in PRP are from TDP, I feel that PRP might go for an alliance with TDP. In a different school of thought, TDP members joined PRP to keep TDP safe from Chiru's strength (who knows ..?).
ReplyDeleteAlas, the end was not so exciting :(
ReplyDeleteCong won with absolute majority...!