Post poll reality

On hindsight, my previous post about the AP post-poll scenario was needless. A few observations:

• Eight cabinet ministers of the incumbent government lost.
• Most filmstars and people from the film industry  including Chiranjeevi (who lost from one of the two constituencies he contested) lost. 
• Politics of polarization still work! 

The most obvious inferences from the result are: 

• The allegations of mass corruption and high-handed behavior of the ministers in the YSR cabinet are not baseless. 
• Schemes like the Aarogyasri, free electricity, Rs. 2 per Kg rice though populist work. Needless to say, the opposition manifesto and poll promises were more populist. The 'gullible' voter has perhaps learnt to decipher the difference between greed and need!
• Filmy glamour could possibly set the box-office on fire but certainly not the poll booths. 
• Politics of polarization is a game not just of the right wing BJP. YSR's hate speech against the Telangana cause in Nandyala was perhaps the baap of all polarizations witnessed in the history of AP. The result is visible. I rest my case. 
  

The excitement of Election 2009

Like the last time, AP went to polls at the same time as the Centre. I was quite vocal about my support for the BJP+ at the centre and for the TDP+ at state. Enter Chiranjeevi,  I was more drawn towards the contest at the state level. Hence this blog. 

The results so far are very interestingly poised.Photo Finish is what the media has been calling it. Of the 294 seats: 

Congress leads in 140; TDP leads in 124; PRP leads in 16; TRS leads in 10; Left leads in 4 and others (including the Majlis): 10

So much of numbers don't make the picture any better, they only seem to make it more interesting. The options that exist for Government formation include:  

• Either the Cong+ (including the Majlis) or TDP+ (including the Left, TRS) attain a majority.
• Both the fronts fall short of an absolute majority and take support from PRP which is the only single sizeable chunk outside the two major fronts. In which case Chiru can demand more than his pound of flesh. The demands could range anywhere from making him the CM for a portion of the Assembly's tenure to a big portfolios in the cabinet. 

Any reasonable analysis of the post-poll scenario will have to focus on case 2, since the occurance of case 1 would dismiss the need for an analysis. Which way Chiru goes is essentially the crucial factor! Reasons that Chiru would factor in before making the choice are:

• The presence of ex-TDP stalwarts in the PRP may tend to repel it from any proximity to the TDP. 
  
• The traditional rivalry between the vote-bank of the PRP (Kapu community) and TDP (Kamma community). The fact that the Kapus and other BCs form a significant chunk of the population in the state might tempt Chiru to retain the vote bank and move away from the TDP+. Hurting this vote bank could mar his future prospects. 
• In a way, any vote that has not gone for the Cong+, can be interpreted as a vote against the incumbent Govt. Extrapolating this logic, the PRP cannot support the incumbent Govt. since it would against the people's will. 

What remains to be seen is whether Chiru goes on to retain the vote bank or if he goes with the people's will.